Long-Term Trend Remains Positive

Ethereum has continued to strengthen, climbing from around $2,400 to its current $4,200. Macro indicators, including the MACD and moving averages, signal a sustained upward trend. The overall Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) across all exchanges has dropped to 0.16, indicating reduced selling supply — historically a bullish sign.

Binance Shows a Contrasting Picture

Against the backdrop of favorable long-term signals, Binance-specific data is more concerning. The ESR on Binance has risen to 0.04, while net ETH inflows to the exchange have increased notably. Such movements often suggest that holders are transferring coins to take profits, engage in arbitrage, or participate in exchange programs. As a result, additional short-term selling pressure may emerge.

Key Resistance Level at $4,400

Technical analysis highlights $4,400 as a major resistance level. A breakout above this zone, accompanied by moderate exchange inflows, could open the way toward $4,800 and a test of all-time highs. However, if Binance inflows remain elevated, the market could see a correction back to the $3,950–$4,000 range before attempting another move higher.

Institutional Interest and Retail Activity

The market structure continues to show strong interest from institutional investors. Large purchase volumes and coins held off-exchange confirm that major players are positioning for the long term. Retail investors are also active, maintaining demand, but historical patterns indicate that overheated expectations can lead to short-term reversals.

Conclusion

The divergence between the overall ESR trend and Binance metrics creates a mixed backdrop. Long-term investors still have favorable conditions, but short-term traders should closely watch exchange inflows and price reactions at key levels. Entry decisions should be made with the possibility of both a breakout and a rejection from $4,400 in mind.

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