According to digital asset firm 21Shares, unexpectedly strong U.S. employment data for June could pave the way for Bitcoin to surge to $200,000. Non-farm payrolls rose by 147,000, outperforming forecasts despite prior ADP data suggesting weakness. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%.

This data impacts key macroeconomic levers — interest rates, dollar strength, and investor risk appetite — that drive crypto market behavior. Analyst Matt Mena argues that sustained, non-inflationary job growth creates conditions for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would increase market liquidity and benefit digital assets like Bitcoin.

Mena sees $200,000 not as a peak but as a potential new trading range, after which altcoins may outperform. Historically, bull markets fueled by liquidity have seen initial capital inflows into Bitcoin before spilling over into smaller crypto assets.

Another influential factor is the forthcoming "Big Beautiful Bill" by Donald Trump, which recently passed major legislative hurdles. Though it may temporarily increase bond yields — a headwind for crypto — analysts suggest it could ultimately reinforce the appeal of hard assets like Bitcoin. If the Fed responds with liquidity injections, as it has in past cycles, a fresh crypto rally could follow.

Crypto strategist Rekt Capital notes that if the 2025 rally follows the 2020 pattern, the market could peak in October, approximately 550 days after the latest Bitcoin halving. Retail investor engagement remains muted, although institutional interest and ETF demand have been increasing.

Some, like Arthur Hayes, believe halvings are no longer the dominant market driver and instead emphasize central bank actions. Others, including Rekt Capital, argue that abandoning long-tested indicators would be premature.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains range-bound, down 0.5% over the past 24 hours, currently trading around $108,985.

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