Bitcoin in 2025: Breakout or Prolonged Consolidation?

Bitcoin (BTC) is at a crucial turning point in 2025, and on-chain data suggests the possibility of either a major price surge or extended sideways movement in the coming months.

Three Potential Paths: Bullish Rally, Sideways Drift, or Correction

According to analysts, BTC is currently in a “rally launch zone.” 

The network momentum ratio stands at 0.8 (80%), signaling that the market is primed for movement. This metric, based on NUPL and MVRV indicators, points to investor readiness — but does not predict the direction.

Three potential scenarios:

1. Bullish breakout. If BTC breaks above the critical threshold of 1.0, it could trigger a full-fledged rally. Historical precedents from 2017 and 2021 show that Bitcoin could climb to $175,000 within six months under similar conditions.

2. Consolidation. A more neutral path suggests price stability between $90,000 and $110,000, where investors hold their positions but refrain from aggressive buying.

3. Correction. If the momentum ratio falls below 0.75, it may trigger profit-taking by short-term holders and a potential pullback to the $70,000–$85,000 range.

Since a correction already occurred in early April, analysts see the first two scenarios as more likely.

Realized Cap Hits All-Time High

On April 29, Bitcoin’s realized capitalization hit a record high of $882.2 billion. 

Unlike market cap, this metric tracks the value of coins based on their last movement, excluding dormant or lost assets. As such, it better reflects the real capital invested by active market participants.

Historically, sharp increases in realized cap have often preceded major price increases, indicating rising investor confidence.

Whales Accumulate Again Amid Reduced Uncertainty

This renewed confidence is echoed in whale activity. Over the past two weeks, large BTC holders have accumulated over 43,000 BTC — worth nearly $4 billion.

 This accumulation follows a lull earlier this year caused by geopolitical concerns, particularly the aggressive trade stance of U.S. President Donald Trump.

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