Recent price fluctuations of Bitcoin (BTC) have sparked speculation about a potential end to the bull market and the start of a bearish phase. Investors are questioning whether the leading cryptocurrency is entering a prolonged correction and sideways movement, but analysts continue to highlight remaining opportunities for recovery.

Blockchain analyst and Bitcoin expert IT Tech argues that historical data from market cycles can help predict the trajectory of the current bull rally and determine whether BTC has reached its seasonal peak. The firm focused on trends in BTC transaction volumes during past growth and decline cycles.

Bitcoin’s Historical Patterns

During the 2016–2017 bull cycle, when BTC surged to 20,000 there was a spike in large transactions (over 1  million). The price rally coincided with aggressive accumulation by major players, ultimately driving the market to new highs.

In the 2018–2019 bear cycle, institutional activity declined, but accumulation continued at a slower pace amid BTC consolidation. Meanwhile, retail investors began gradually buying the dip.

During the 2020–2021 rally, which saw BTC hit 69,000 due to institutional demand.

Room for Further Growth 

Following the 2022 crash and BTC consolidation around $20,000, major investors continued accumulating, but transaction volumes remained below 2020–2021 peaks.

Analysis of the current cycle revealed increased activity in low-value transaction segments (0–0–1 and 100–100–1,000). This signals retail investor participation driven by "fear of missing out" (FOMO).

However, large transaction volumes (>$1 million) have yet to reach levels seen in previous bull cycles. IT Tech suggests this indicates "quiet" accumulation by whales and institutions, with the market still lacking a euphoric phase.

Experts believe a sharp rise in >$1 million transactions would signal the start of a euphoric stage. For now, current data points to lingering growth potential.

The importance of mid-sized transactions (1,000–1,000–10,000) is also emphasized, as their growth often precedes broader market rallies.

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